What I work on

UHERO forecast reports

Quarterly forecasts for the state of Hawaiʻi and its counties, and an annual forecast report for counties, produced with the UHERO forecast team. I write sections on policy and other key issues, and edit the reports.

Publications on this theme are listed below. A full list of authored reports written for governments and other public audiences is on the reports page.

Forecast reports

War brings more stormy weather to Hawaiʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Gordner, T., Inafuku, R., Park, J.Y., Tyndall, J., Pepino, V., Prager, E., and Munoz, R.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2026

Published version

In the pressMaui Now
Hawaiʻi moves beyond recession, but slowly

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Tyndall, J., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2026

Published version

In the pressStar Advertiser, Big Island Video News, Hawaii News Now, Pacific Business News, Hawaiʻi Public Radio, Aloha State Daily
Mild recession and weak recovery in 2026

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressMaui Now
Deteriorating US outlook weighs on Hawaiʻi prospects

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressThe Maui News, Big Island Video News, Hawaii News Now, Hawaii News Now, Aloha State Daily, Hawaiʻi Free Press
Slowing US economy turns Kauaʻi outlook negative

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2025

Published version
Federal policies push Hawaiʻi toward mild recession

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressTravel Weekly, Star Advertiser, KITV, The Business Journals, Hawaii News Now, Spectrum News, Kauaʻi Now, Big Island Video News
Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaiʻi downturn

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version
Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., Cailao, J.A.M., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Lagging Maui recovery and a slower speed limit for Hawaiʻi growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Growth slowing on Kauaʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2024

Published version
Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Johnson, M., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Maui fires deliver blow to the Valley Isle outlook

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Johnson, M., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Declining US outlook is a rising risk for Kauaʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2023

Published version
Promise and peril for the Hawaiʻi economy

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Miller, L., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
A Hawaiʻi soft landing still in the cards

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Shresta, S.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Global inflation fight will pause Hawaiʻi growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., Shresta, S., Katayama, A., and Tran, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
US recession will weigh on Hawaiʻi's recovery

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
Foreign visitors will provide boost, but risks have risen

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., Mclaughlan, J., and Hwang, K.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead?

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., Mclaughlan, J., and Hwang, K.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., and Gabatino, T.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2021

Published version
Delta wave swamps tourism, but return to recovery expected

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Fuleky, P., Bond-Smith, S., Garboden, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., and Gabatino, T.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2021

Published version