Reports

Research for decision makers

Reports written for governments, agencies, community organizations, and a public audience, and the recurring UHERO forecast reports for the state of Hawaiʻi and its counties.

Peer-reviewed articles are on the research page. Shorter writing for a general audience is on the commentary page.

Collections

UHERO forecast reports

Quarterly forecasts for the state of Hawaiʻi and its counties, and an annual forecast report for counties, produced with the UHERO forecast team. I write sections on policy and other key issues, and edit the reports.

See this work

UHERO publications

Reports, briefs, blogs and videos published by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, apart from the recurring forecasts.

See this work

Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Publications

Reports written between 2016 and 2021 at the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre in Perth, on the Western Australian economy and on Australian industry, innovation and higher education.

See this work

Research reports

Beyond the price of paradise: Is Hawaiʻi being left behind?

Bond-Smith, S. and Schwartz, E.

UHERO Report, 2026

Supported by the Hawaiʻi Business Roundtable

Published version UHERO Insights UHERO Focus video

In the pressSFGate, Aloha State Daily, Honolulu Civil Beat, Hawaii News Now, KITV News, Pacific Business News, Maui Now, Aloha State Daily, Kauaʻi Now, Big Island Video News, AsAmNews, Prism News, Hoodline, KHON2 News, University of Hawaiʻi News, Star Advertiser
An economic analysis of the proposal to phase out transient vacation rentals in Maui County apartment districts

Bonham, C.S., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Moore, D., Gordner, T., Kim, E., and Essaidi, H.

UHERO Report, 2025

Prepared for the Hawaiʻi Community Foundation

Published version

In the pressBeat of Hawaii, Associated Press
Rural health disparities in Hawaiʻi

Bond-Smith, D., Bond-Smith, S., and Juarez, R.

UHERO Report, 2024

Prepared for the University of Hawaiʻi Rural Health Policy Research Center

Published version
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawaiʻi

Bond-Smith, S. and Ilamkar, S.

UHERO Report, 2024

Published version UHERO Insights

In the pressHonolulu Civil Beat, Maui Now, Star Advertiser, Hawaii News Now, KITV Island News, KITV Island News, Big Island Now, Hawaiʻi Free Press, Kauaʻi Now, Hawaiʻi Public Radio, University of Hawaiʻi News, Hawaii News Now
How does Hawaiʻi's economic geography affect its healthcare industry?

Bond-Smith, S. and Bond-Smith, D.

UHERO Report, 2024

Prepared for the University of Hawaiʻi Rural Health Policy Research Center

Published version
After the Maui wildfires: The road ahead

Bond-Smith, S., Bond-Smith, D., Bonham, C.S., Bremer, L., Burnett, K., Coffman, M., Fuleky, P., Gangnes, B., Inafuku, R., Juarez, R., La Croix, S., Moore, C., Moore, D., Tarui, N., Tyndall, J., and Wada, C.

UHERO Report, 2023

Published version
The economic impact of astronomy in Hawaiʻi: 2019 update

Bond-Smith, S., Bonham, C.S., Burnett, K., and Wada, C.

UHERO Report, 2022

Published version

In the pressHonolulu Star Advertiser, The Business Journals, Pacific Business News, University of Hawaiʻi News
The effects of the pandemic on the economy of Hawaiʻi

Bond-Smith, S.

UHERO Report, 2022

Prepared for the State of Hawaiʻi Department of Budget and Finance

Not publicly available.
Location, location, location: A uniquely Hawaiʻi economic development strategy

Bond-Smith, S.

UHERO Research Brief, 2021

Published version

In the pressThe Business Journals, Pacific Business News
Agriculture in WA: Update

Bond-Smith, S., Kiely, D., and Salazar, S.

BCEC Research Brief, 2020

Published version
Green shoots: Opportunities to grow a sustainable WA economy

Bond-Smith, S., Cassells, R., Duncan, A., Mavisakalyan, A., Salazar, S., Sandoval-Guzman, M., Seymour, R., and Twomey, C.

BCEC Focus on Industry Series, No. 5, 2020

Published version
Analysis of costs and savings of reforms to higher education

Bond-Smith, S. and Cassells, R.

BCEC Research Brief, COVID-19 Insights, No. 8, 2020

Published version

In the pressYahoo! Finance Australia, studyinternational.com, The Mandarin, studyinternational.com, The New Daily
Future-proofing the WA economy: A roadmap to industrial diversification and regional growth

Bond-Smith, S., Dockery, A.M., Duncan, A., Kiely, D., and Salazar, S.

BCEC Focus on Industry Series, No. 4, 2019

Project leader.

Published version

In the pressMandurah Mail, The Fifth Estate, Sydney Morning Herald, nationaltribune.com.au
To health and happiness: WA's health industry future

Bond-Smith, S., Duncan, A., Mavisakalyan, A., Seymour, R., and Tarverdi, Y.

BCEC Focus on Industry Series, No. 3, 2018

Published version
Falling through the net: The digital divide in Western Australia

Bond-Smith, S., Duncan, A., Kiely, D., and Salazar, S.

BCEC Focus on Western Australia Series, No. 11, 2018

Published version
The engine room for growth? The role, performance and future prospects of small business in Western Australia

Bond-Smith, S., Duncan, A., Kiely, D., Leong, K., Nguyen, H., and Ong, R.

BCEC Focus on Western Australia Series, No. 9, 2017

Published version
From paddock to plate: WA's potential in agriculture and agribusiness

Bond-Smith, S., Duncan, A., Nguyen, H., Kiely, D., and Leong, K.

BCEC Focus on Industry Series, No. 1, 2016

Published version
Positioned for an ideas boom? Productivity and innovation in Australia

Bond-Smith, S., Cassells, R., Duncan, A., Kiely, D., and Tarverdi, Y.

BCEC Focus on the States Series, No. 4, 2016

Published version

Forecast reports

Recurring forecasts for the state of Hawaiʻi and its counties, produced with the UHERO forecast team.

War brings more stormy weather to Hawaiʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Gordner, T., Inafuku, R., Park, J.Y., Tyndall, J., Pepino, V., Prager, E., and Munoz, R.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2026

Published version

In the pressMaui Now
Hawaiʻi moves beyond recession, but slowly

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Tyndall, J., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2026

Published version

In the pressStar Advertiser, Big Island Video News, Hawaii News Now, Pacific Business News, Hawaiʻi Public Radio, Aloha State Daily
Mild recession and weak recovery in 2026

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressMaui Now
Deteriorating US outlook weighs on Hawaiʻi prospects

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., and Pepino, V.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressThe Maui News, Big Island Video News, Hawaii News Now, Hawaii News Now, Aloha State Daily, Hawaiʻi Free Press
Slowing US economy turns Kauaʻi outlook negative

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2025

Published version
Federal policies push Hawaiʻi toward mild recession

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Gordner, T., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version

In the pressTravel Weekly, Star Advertiser, KITV, The Business Journals, Hawaii News Now, Spectrum News, Kauaʻi Now, Big Island Video News
Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaiʻi downturn

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2025

Published version
Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., Cailao, J.A.M., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Lagging Maui recovery and a slower speed limit for Hawaiʻi growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Essaidi, H., and Cailao, J.A.M.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Growth slowing on Kauaʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2024

Published version
Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Driggers, J.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2024

Published version
State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Johnson, M., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Maui fires deliver blow to the Valley Isle outlook

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Johnson, M., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Declining US outlook is a rising risk for Kauaʻi

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the County of Kauaʻi, 2023

Published version
Promise and peril for the Hawaiʻi economy

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Miller, L., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
A Hawaiʻi soft landing still in the cards

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., and Shresta, S.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2023

Published version
Global inflation fight will pause Hawaiʻi growth

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Rahman, A., Shresta, S., Katayama, A., and Tran, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
US recession will weigh on Hawaiʻi's recovery

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., and Rahman, A.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
Foreign visitors will provide boost, but risks have risen

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., Mclaughlan, J., and Hwang, K.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead?

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., Mclaughlan, J., and Hwang, K.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2022

Published version
Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Bond-Smith, S., Fuleky, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., and Gabatino, T.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2021

Published version
Delta wave swamps tourism, but return to recovery expected

Bonham, C.S., Gangnes, B., Fuleky, P., Bond-Smith, S., Garboden, P., Tyndall, J., Inafuku, R., Alford, I., Rahman, A., and Gabatino, T.

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi, 2021

Published version